JAPAN'S ANGUISH – 8:57 A.M. ET:  Oh, does anyone remember there was an earthquake in Japan?  And a tsunami?  You'd barely know it from some of the hysterical reporting about the nuclear issue.  We certainly don't mean to diminish the importance of this issue, or of possible radiation releases, but the end of the world is not really near. 

We actually don't know much about what's happening to the crippled reactors in Japan except that technicians are working the problem, and that there has been some radiation released.  What counts, of course, is the amount released, the type, and the geographic area affected.  I wish the press would remind readers and viewers that we used to explode hydrogen bombs in the atmosphere, and, while that is clearly undesirable, the world survived, and life expectancy has increased in most places.

The New York Times, in a rational moment, at least gives us this knowledgeable report on the realistic prospects for health damage:

Worsening conditions at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan have raised fears that people will be harmed by radiation. But experts say that in terms of public health, the Japanese have already taken precautions that should prevent the accident from becoming another Chernobyl, even if additional radiation is released.

The great tragedy of Chernobyl was an epidemic of thyroid cancer among people exposed to the radiation as children — more than 6,000 cases so far, with more expected for many years to come. There is no reason for it to be repeated in Japan.

The epidemic in Chernobyl was preventable and would probably not have happened if people had been told to stop drinking locally produced milk, which was by far the most important source of radiation. Cows ate grass contaminated by fallout from the reactors and secreted radioactive iodine in their milk.

This story must be followed hour by hour.  It's being reported like a horse race, which it isn't.  There will be some damage from radiation.  The extent is what we don't know.  We also don't know the implications for American nuclear power.  That debate has barely begun, and you may be certain that political scientists will far outnumber real scientists when it reaches full decibel level.

March 16, 2011